by Aksay Anand

The Green Bay receiving game is a bit of an enigma.  There will be numbers to go around, but where will they go?  Let’s dissect it a bit.

Donald Driver: Driver is a pro’s pro.  He does everything asked of him.  However, there are no extra fantasy points given for run blocks or hits taken in the middle of the field.  Instead, we look at several flags with Driver.  One, from games 9-16, he averaged over 20 yards LESS than in games 1-8.  Two, Driver has Jermichael Finley, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson breathing down his neck for looks.  Three, Driver is 35, an age where we see decline with many receivers, and had procedures on both his knees recently.   Four, by most accounts, Greg Jennings had an off year last year.  If we assume he picks it back up, combined with Jones, Finley and Nelson, Driver’s targets won’t be what they once were.  Driver is tough as nails and has 6 straight seasons of 1,000 yards; that said, don’t be surprised if that yardage total dips to anywhere from 800-900, and even less if injuries strike or if Jones/Nelson come on quick.

James Jones vs Jordy Nelson: Here’s where things get interesting.  James Jones theoretically fits better at flanker.  He has better deep speed and is better athletically.  However, Jones has been pretty inconsistent in several areas since he’s been in the league.  Jones had 10 drops last year (including his 1 playoff game), which tied him for the league lead in that unfavorable category.  Jones also had an ugly 53% catch percentage on balls thrown his way.  This wasn’t because of Aaron Rodgers either – Driver’s catch % was 65, Jennings clocked in at 64%, Finley checked in at 78%.  His yards per reception was a so-so 14.0.  Did he go to the Braylon Edwards Kids Camp or something?  However, he did flash skills that one needed to observe to see.  When he concentrates, he glides through routes very well.  His YAC per reception was over 6.0, which is very good.  He’s built fairly well and has the size at over 6’0 to be effective at flanker. 

Jordy Nelson, on the other hand, exhibited traits that seem to suit the slot position well.  He’s always had good hands and been a fairly consistent receiver.  He tends to exhibit the short range quickness you want in a slot guy.  He also shields the ball well from defenders, but isn’t the best athlete and definitely isn’t a burner.  Nelson had a 79% catch rate last year, which was leaps and bounds better than Jones’.  He also dropped 3 passes versus Jones’ 10 (although Jones played more snaps).  Regardless, what the position battle comes down to is this: Jordy Nelson seems to be a good medium to longterm answer at slot for the Packers.  If Jones can stay focused, he has the chance to be a nice complement opposite Jennings.  Both guys are fairly young (Jones 26, Nelson 25).  Nelson would be the safer pick, while Jones has a higher ceiling and lower floor.  Keep in mind though, that even if either of these guys improves well, Jennings and Finley are still obviously the 1 and 2 options, in addition to the solid running game Ryan Grant provides.  Ultimately, it comes down more to what you’re looking for in a WR for your fantasy team, and whether you can take a boom/bust guy or need a safer guy who may get you a solid 60 catch season.

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